Introduction: Tired of Guessing

"If you're leveraged with capital, code, or people… then good decisions have a much larger earning impact than hard work."

Naval Ravikant

I hate unnecessary work.  And if there’s one thing I’ve noticed after a decade in marketing, it’s this: never underestimate the human bias to do more work than necessary.  Let’s pause here.  Because understanding why people, especially marketers, pour hours into work that doesn’t produce tangible results is worth brief reflection.

You probably know the proverb:

“The devil you know is better than the devil you don’t.”

It’s timeless because it points to our bias for familiarity.

We’d rather endure the same old, same old, or scramble to figure it out on our own, just to save face and feel a sense of certainty — because it feels safe.

I know this is true from personal experience.

I hid behind more ads, more angles, more hooks — because productivity looks good.

I didn’t realize I was hiding back then. I was just doing what marketers tend to do when they hit a wall: double down on “rapid testing.”

The problem is I was misdiagnosing the issue altogether.

Now, to be fair, rapid testing can work. But it often produces “one-trick wonders” that companies are incapable of replicating.

I operated like that for years. And unlike most people who put their heads down and complain in silence, I was vocal about the lack of forward progress.

I kept asking questions that made people slightly uncomfortable (in a good way):

  • “Is this really an issue with our ads? Could this be a funnel problem?”

  • “I think something is missing in how we’re approaching this.”

  • “Are we missing something about the target audience?”

Looking back, I was asking good questions.

I just didn’t know how to diagnose the problem.

But now, I do.

And I’ll tell you how.

The Key to TRUE Leverage

Let’s get real.

Leverage isn’t more effort or guessing.

It’s making better decisions, faster.

I used to feel guilty for wanting leverage because, on the surface, it looked like I was trying to escape work.

But I don’t want leverage to escape work…

I want leverage to escape doing STUPID STUFF.

Where marketers get confused is when they mistake leverage for “status signals.”

When they hit a ceiling, they don’t look at their own funnel.

They look at what everyone else is doing.

It’s like being the awkward kid in the cafeteria — scanning the room, trying to figure out what the “cool kids” are wearing, saying, posting.

“If we just copy that, maybe we’ll be cool too.”

Sound familiar?

That’s what happens when marketers hoard frameworks, obsess over gurus, and build massive swipe files.

That’s not how more advanced marketers think.

They are looking for LEVERAGE.

They don’t ask:

“How do we make better ads?”

They ask:

“What are the biggest breaks in the funnel?”

Because the biggest leverage usually lives in the weakest stage of your funnel.

That’s the place where even a small improvement can create massive downstream impact.

Let’s say you run a high-ticket service.

Over 60 days, you close 119 sales at $4,799.

That’s roughly $571K in revenue.

If you close just 10% more deals — without increasing traffic, ad spend, or booked calls — that improvement alone can add roughly $1.6 million in annual revenue.

Same funnel.
Same offer.
Same effort.

Just fixing the biggest break.

That’s leverage.

The 5 Steps to Real Leverage

Now for the fun part.

If you’re serious about finding real leverage, here are the exact five steps I would use.

These are the steps I’d follow if I were stepping into a new company today and responsible for results.

Step 1 – Diagnose the Problem

The first thing you need to do is identify where the biggest bottleneck is.

Because if you can fix the bottleneck, everything downstream from there improves.

Start by looking at your revenue at various stages.

Ignore blended CPA or ROAS.

Ignore secondary platform metrics (like CTR or retention).

Map the money path.

For most businesses it’s some version of:

  • Traffic → Lead → Sales Event → Closed Deal → Revenue
    (or)

  • Traffic → Purchase → Revenue

Now ask two questions:

  1. How many people move from one stage to the next?

  2. What does each outcome cost?

You’re not hunting for “bad metrics.”

You’re asking:

If we fixed one stage, which fix would produce the biggest revenue lift?

That’s where you aim…

Not where performance looks ugly.

But where money is leaking the most.

That’s the bottleneck.

That’s leverage.

If an athlete has a broken foot, you don’t tell them to go on a diet or do more exercises.

FIX THE DANG FOOT.

Without diagnosis, there can be no fix.

A Quick Reality Check

This only works if your numbers are clean.

If you don’t know:

  • How many people enter each stage

  • What each action costs

  • Where revenue is actually coming from

Then you’re basically guessing.

At this point, you don’t really have a system you can interpret. So don’t try diagnosing yet. Get measurement dialed in fast.

I’ve been there.

At one point, I couldn’t break CPA down to the ad level.

I didn’t even know how many visitors were hitting the site.

So when performance dipped, I couldn’t tell:

  • Was it the ad?

  • Was it the landing page?

  • Was it the sales process?

In that situation, the bottleneck isn’t creative — it’s reporting.

Fix tracking. Then diagnose.

Step 2 – Decide What’s Actually Limiting Growth

Now that you can see the money path, ask:

“Which stage is preventing revenue from increasing?”

Examples:

  • Strong traffic, weak lead conversion → your message isn’t convincing enough or trust is low.

  • Plenty of booked calls, low close rate → your offer or position in the call isn’t strong enough.

  • Ads are generating sales but can’t scale without blowing up CPA → your messaging is too narrow, your audience pool is too small, or your hook is burning out.

Notice what we’re doing.

We’re not asking:

“What should we test?”

We’re asking:

“What’s actually stopping revenue from moving?”

Once you answer that, you have direction.

And your next hypothesis comes from that stage — not from a random swipe file you saw this morning.

Step 3 – Form a Clear Belief

You’ve laid out revenue by stages.

You’ve diagnosed where the problem is.

Now you need to get very clear on one thing:

What do you believe is actually causing this stage to underperform?

Not a new creative idea.
Not a random angle you want to try.

An explanation.

If your product page is getting traffic, but conversion is low, then why do you believe that’s happening?

For example:

  • “Maybe the page isn’t converting because we’re focusing on the wrong benefits.”

  • “The product is interesting, but I don’t think we’re clearly articulating the real problem people feel.”

  • “The messaging might be causing the right people to self-select out.”

Let’s look at this in action.

Let’s say you’re running ads to a paid writers group. A common concern beginner writers have is impostor syndrome. But the landing page positions the group as elite — “for the best writers looking to hone their craft.”

If that’s the case, your belief might be:

“We’re positioning this in a way that makes our ideal customer feel unqualified.”

That’s not just a copy tweak.

That’s your working explanation for why this stage of the funnel isn’t performing.

And that explanation is what your hypothesis is built on.

If it’s right, performance should move.

If it’s wrong, you adjust your understanding.

But either way, you’re no longer guessing.

You’re testing a hypothesis and learning.

Step 4 – Change ONE Thing that Tests Your Belief

Your beliefs should form the hypothesis for your next tests.

From headlines, to hooks, to landing page copy, your beliefs can look like:

  • “Fear of failure isn’t strong enough in the headline. Right now the headline is too soft, too benefit-focused. We need to remind people of what they stand to lose if they don’t act.”

  • “The messaging on this page caters to a more sophisticated market, not a beginner market. We need the messaging to be more soothing and focused on beginners.”

  • “The product benefits in the ad focus on being non-greasy. But what if audiences prefer lotion that hydrates faster?”

These beliefs are now hypotheses to be tested.

But you need to isolate what specific variable and where it lives.

Let’s walk through how to actually test these beliefs in action.

Belief 1

This headline needs to emphasize what they lose if they don’t act.

Isolated Variable: Trust vs Lose Aversion

Business: Tax Preparation Service

Original Headline:
Over 3,200 Clients Trusted Us to Maximize Their Refunds — Don’t Leave Yours Behind.

What to Test Next:
The Average Taxpayer Misses Up to $2,500 in Deductions — Make Sure You Don’t.

Belief 2

The page is positioned for advanced users — it needs to speak to beginners.

Isolated Variable: Elite vs Reassuring Beginner Framing

Business: Paid Writers Group Membership

Original Headline:
“Learn the Same Techniques Industry Leaders Use to Build Powerful Personal Brands.”

Supporting Copy:
“Master the frameworks top performers use to dominate their niche and stand out in a competitive market.”

New Headline to Test:
“Feel Like You’re Too Far Behind to Start? You’re Not.”

Supporting Copy:
“You don’t need to be an expert. Start with simple 15–30 minute routines designed for beginners who just want to build momentum.”

Belief 3

The ad emphasizes non-greasy, but audiences may care more about fast hydration.

Isolated Variable: Non-greasy vs fast hydration

Product: Lotion

Example of Original (Non-Greasy Angle)

UGC Hook:
“I was so tired of seeing my friend with PERFECT skin while I was constantly scratching dry patches. But every time I used lotion, it made my skin look so greasy — ugh. I needed something better.”

Body:
“Then I found [Product]. It absorbs without leaving that shiny, oily look. My skin finally feels soft without looking greasy!”

Example of New Ad Test (Fast Hydration / Relief Angle)

UGC Hook:
“I was so tired of waking up with tight, itchy skin that felt like it was cracking. And most lotions? They’d sit on top and do nothing.”

Body:
“Then I tried [Product]. It soaked in fast and my skin felt calm almost immediately. No waiting around — just instant relief.”

Step 5 – Track Your Learnings

If you’ve gotten to this point, you’re ahead of most marketers.

Because now you’re not just trying ideas — you’re building understanding.

Let’s use the earlier example of a sales page for a writers group membership.

You test your hypothesis and:

Landing Page A (elite positioning) produces a 20% lower CPA than Landing Page B (beginner positioning).

That delta tells you something.

It tells you beginner reassurance wasn’t the issue. In fact, it may have made performance worse.

So you don’t keep tweaking the tone.

You accept the result and move on.

Now you ask:

If positioning level isn’t the problem, what is?

Maybe it’s not about beginner vs elite at all.

Maybe people don’t think they have a writing technique problem.

Maybe they think they don’t know what to write about. Or how to use AI properly.

That becomes your next belief to test.

Each test narrows the field.

You’re not guessing what to try next.

You’re letting the results shape your next move.

Conclusion

Looking back, the traction I needed to see starts here.

If you can diagnose what’s really going on, isolate where it’s happening, form plausible beliefs, and test them, your actions start compounding into real learning and better results.

As an aside — plausibility is all you can really ask of yourself or your team.

You don’t need a magic bullet.

You don’t need a special technique.

You don’t need more creative ideas or better frameworks.

You just need plausible beliefs you can consistently test and improve.

That’s it.

Start using this today and you’ll be lightyears ahead of everyone still guessing.

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